The Theory
I have a theory about fantasy football draft strategy. I came up with it staring at the free agent pool at 1:00 AM, hunting for cheap auction grabs. The player who wins your matchup is rarely the big name you spent your top capital on.
Look at how you build your roster on draft day:
- You draft your early-round linebacker to do the heavy lifting. You planned for him. He clocks in, does his job, and gets zero credit.
- You win the week with the flyer you took in the twelfth round because the clock was running down, you lacked a safety, and your cup was empty.
Enter Talanoa Hufanga. Denver Broncos safety, pick 184, and starting for the Ramrod Red Devils. The team is 4-0. Stop questioning the late-round flyer and just take the win.
Pick 184
Start with the price tag. Ramrod took Hufanga in the 12th round, pick 184 overall. For context, Tom Brady went 199th in the 2000 NFL Draft. I’m not saying Hufanga is Brady. I’m saying the Red Devils got their guy 15 picks earlier than the Patriots got theirs, and I’ll let you draw your own conclusions. (Please don’t draw that conclusion.)
He wasn’t close to a top-10 preseason IDP. Nobody had him circled. And for two weeks, nobody needed to:
- Week 1: 3.75 points
- Week 2: 6.75 points
That’s 10.5 points in two weeks. If you’d shown me those numbers the Tuesday after Week 2, I’d have told Ramrod to cut him for anyone on waivers with a pulse. Ramrod kept starting him anyway. I choose to believe that was patience.
Week 3
Then Week 3 happened. Hufanga dropped 33.05 points as a starter in a 147.44 to 91.75 win over Speed Inc. That’s 22 percent of his team’s score from one safety. It’s the IDP version of your backup point guard scoring 40 on a random Tuesday in February, and you spending the next week telling everyone you always believed in him.
I promised myself I’d be honest in this column, so here’s the part Ramrod won’t put on the banner. Take out Hufanga’s 33.05 and they still score 114.39. They still win by 22.64. Speed Inc. was not coming back in that one.
So no, he didn’t save the week by himself. What he did was turn a comfortable win into a blowout, pad the season points total in case this ends in a tiebreaker, and do it from a roster spot most teams treat as a parking space. And here’s the stat that matters for this column: all 43.55 of his points have come in wins. Every one. Ask any 4-0 team if they’d rather win by 22 or 55. They’ll say 55, then pretend they don’t care about margin.
The Rest of the Field
Hufanga isn’t the top-scoring IDP. He’s third at 43.55, and first among defensive backs. Here’s who else is in the conversation and why they lose the argument:
- Devin Lloyd (LB): 46.60 points, first among all IDPs. Also listed as not starting and questionable, with only two games played. The most points in the league are helping nobody right now. It’s the fantasy version of keeping Ricky Vaughn in the bullpen.
- Gregory Rousseau (DE): 44.48 points, starting for 4-0 Dark Phoenix. Weekly scores of 16.60, 13.45 and 14.43. A great player having a great season. He also cost $35 at auction. Dark Phoenix paid market price for reliability. Ramrod hit on a lottery ticket.
- Quentin Lake (S): 36.50 points, drafted 14.05 (pick 214) by the Silverbacks, starting for a 3-1 team. The closest thing to a Hufanga clone. One 30-point week and we’re having this conversation again.
- Josiah Trotter (LB, rookie): 36.08 points in two games, 18.04 per game, drafted 19.14 (pick 303). Best per-game number on this list. Not starting for The Eh Team. Pick 303 is a great story. It’s a better story when he’s in the lineup.
The Verdict
Hufanga is the most interesting IDP season so far. Not the best. The most interesting. He cost a 12th-round pick, he’s started for an undefeated team, and every point he’s scored came in a win.
The catch is that it’s one game. Strip out Week 3 and he averages 5.25. So here’s what to watch:
- Does he stay in Ramrod’s lineup? A safety on the bench stops counting.
- Can he post another 15-point week? One more and this stops being a fluke.
- Can Lake or Trotter catch him? Lake needs one big game. Trotter needs a lineup spot.
Check back after Week 6. If Hufanga is still starting and Ramrod is still unbeaten, he goes on the cover of the league newsletter. If he’s back to 4 points a week, I never wrote this column.
